The Art of the..... Tie?

The Merriam-Webster Dictionary has two formal definitions of the word “tie”. The first is a verb, defined as “Fasten or knot; connect (physically or relationally); unite (in marriage or musically); bind electrical systems”. The second is a noun, defined as “A neck accessory; a connection or bond; a tied score; structural element (e.g., in railroads)”. There is, however, a less known third definition of a tie that can only be found on this website in the FAQs section. That definition is loosely described as “the methodology of a madman” for picking the outcome of an NFL game.

Well folks, consider me a madman.

There comes a time in a man’s life when he meets a crossroad and must stand on principle; it appears, after 7 years of not losing The Outback Bowl, I have hit that crossroad. For those less ingrained in the history of The Outback Bowl, there have been the same four participants in this fine competition for its entire history as we enter our 8th season, and of those four participants three have lost The Outback Bowl, and one (me) has not lost. While others have turned to math, analytics, and complex methodologies, I have held steadfast that the best strategy is to just pick the winners. This strategy has not led me astray, but it has had one notable side effect - hubris.

This hubris has been the source of slight animosity from the less successful Outbackers and I have been dubbed “the villain” (encapsulated most notably in a short children's story created by a fellow Outbacker). But as I said, a man must stand on principle, and that principle is mostly that I am just better than everyone else at The Outback Bowl.

So this begs the question, what does picking a tie have to do with principle and hubris? Well the answer is, through confidence or arrogance, I have long touted that I felt picking a tie as the result of an NFL game would be a fun and great way to potentially level the playing field for my opponents. I teased this tie pick before the 2024 season but ultimately did not pick a tie. This was for a number of reasons, but mostly because it felt dumb and like extra work I didn’t want to do. That has all changed. This year my strategy of “just pick the winners” will be slightly modified to “just pick the correct outcome” because I have picked a tie for the outcome of one NFL game this season.

Ladies and gentlemen, please turn your attention Sunday, October 19th, Week 7 of the NFL season where the Cleveland Browns will be hosting the Miami Dolphins at 1pm ET. This game WILL end in a tie.

I’m sure you all are asking, why this game? Well first of all, I just picked the correct outcome - easy. But why is this the correct outcome? Let’s dive into the details. The Browns are going through what most franchises would consider a tumultuous QB battle after drafting TWO quarterbacks in this year’s NFL draft plus signing Joe Flacco this offseason. In Cleveland, however, this is just known as Sunday. The potential for struggles and an anemic offense are high with a rotating cast of QBs, Jerry Jeudy as their number one wide receiver and a rookie running back who may go to jail. The Dolphins on the other hand have on paper what would appear to be a decent offense, but in 2024 were quite pedestrian due to the consistent inability of their star players to remain healthy. I don’t expect that to change this year with all those players being one year older and one concussion away from retirement. On top of that, October 19th has the potential to be the first game of the season in which the Dolphins will be playing in colder weather (the average high temperature in Cleveland is 10 degrees colder than the average low temperature in Miami on October 19th). The Dolphins are not known for playing well in cold weather and I don’t expect that to change this year (not so bold prediction: Tyreek Hill misses some of the game with a tweaked hamstring). Lastly, these teams don’t have kickers that can hammer a game winning kick in OT should the opportunity come knocking. By Week 7 the Dolphins will be relying on an NFL journeyman, Riley Patterson, who is on his 6th team in 5 years or Jason Sanders coming off of an injury. Equally bad, the Browns are turning to something called an Andre Szmyt. Szmyt will be a 27 year old rookie and has a last name that is criminally lacking vowels. Just ask yourself if you can really hear an announcer trying to say that last name in conjunction with the words “wins it for the Browns in overtime” - highly unlikely.

So with all that being said, bad offenses, potentially cold weather, kickers you don’t trust, midseason 1pm game, two teams that will almost certainly have nothing to play for. This game SCREAMS tie. Sharpie.

If this game somehow leads to my undoing in The Outback Bowl, I will accept my fate. But seeing how I have never been within one game of losing I find it highly unlikely. I look forward to another La Marca toast, multiple liquor drinks, a Bloomin’ Onion, maybe some wings, a surf and turf with grilled shrimp on top, upgraded sides of mac and cheese and bacon-covered Brussels sprouts, a nice dessert, and whatever else sounds good in the moment at next year’s Outback dinner paid for by someone who is not me.